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Russian Roulette
(Editor’s note: Axios AM writes this morning about the Russian Roulette Trump is playing. Mike Allen working with Noah Bressner & Bill Kole presents an interesting picture.)
President Trump is indulging his fondness for Vladimir Putin at a moment of acute political peril, forcing Republicans in the midterms to take cover as he showers Moscow with one-sided concessions.
Why it matters: With just three weeks until the election, Trump is rekindling a decade-long, scandal-scarred relationship with a dictator reviled by most Americans — including his own supporters.
Driving the news: Since speaking with Putin on Friday, Trump has embarked on a remarkable five-day campaign of diplomatic concessions and cover for Russia — sparking bipartisan blowback just as voters prepare to cast their ballots.
o On Friday, Trump announced a deal to unleash millions of tons of Russian diesel onto global markets, easing sanctions designed to starve Moscow’s war revenues.
o On Saturday, Trump lashed out at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for striking Russian refineries and demanded that Kyiv replace its leader.
o On Sunday, Trump blindsided Zelensky by declaring an immediate “energy ceasefire.” Russia has continued attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure, with no apparent consequences from Washington.
o On Monday, Trump dismissed months of intelligence-based reports that Russia was enabling Iran’s war effort by supplying information about U.S. military assets.
o On Tuesday, Trump doubled down on the diesel deal and brushed off concerns that the proceeds could finance Russia’s war machine, even as GOP senators labeled it a “betrayal” and “a gift to our adversary.”
Between the lines: The benefits to Russia are clear. Far less apparent is what Trump’s concessions accomplish for American security, European allies or his own political fortunes.
o For America: Energy analysts doubt the diesel deal will meaningfully ease fuel prices sent soaring by the Iran war.
o For Europe: Washington is breaking ranks with a NATO alliance confronting a historic threat environment, as Russia escalates its hybrid campaign of sabotage, cyberattacks and drone incursions.
o For Republicans: With control of Congress hanging in the balance, Trump is embracing a dictator viewed unfavorably by 81% of his own 2024 voters, according to a January YouGov poll.
The big picture: Trump’s warm relationship with Putin has haunted his political career since 2016, when Russia interfered in the presidential election to help him defeat Hillary Clinton.
o From the Mueller investigation to the Helsinki summit, Trump’s deference toward Putin has long divided Republicans and put him at odds with his own national security establishment.
o A decade of investigations, scandals and Washington outrage has done little to shake that affinity. If anything, the scrutiny appears to have hardened Trump’s determination to defy the foreign-policy consensus.
What they’re saying: On Monday, Trump again suggested that Russia was more interested in ending the war than the country it invaded, telling reporters: “I think, actually, Putin wants to make a deal more than Zelensky.”
o “The President’s diesel deal will help lower prices for farmers, truckers, and families across the nation as he simultaneously urges both sides of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to stop strikes against refineries, which are driving up costs and hurting American consumers,” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said in a statement.
The bottom line: Losing control of Congress could paralyze Trump’s legislative agenda and expose his administration to years of investigations and subpoenas.
o But as polling alarms pile up, the president appears increasingly willing to follow his raw political instincts, regardless of the consequences for Republicans fighting to keep him in power.
o In a Truth Social post Tuesday, Trump made clear that he sees himself as personally immune from the results of the midterms, writing: “I’m not running in the Elections, I’ve already won, IN A MASSIVE LANDSLIDE.”
(Footnote: We try to limit sharing pieces we read from outside publications. However, with the mid-term election more news and opinions are being generated.)
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